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Bank of Canada Rate Announcement Apr 21st, 2021

Erik Sepper • Apr 21, 2021

Bank of Canada will hold current level of policy rate until inflation objective is sustainably achieved, adjusts quantitative easing program.


FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

Media Relations

Ottawa, Ontario

April 21, 2021


The Bank of Canada today held its target for the overnight rate at the effective lower bound of ¼ percent, with the Bank Rate at ½ percent and the deposit rate at ¼ percent. The Bank continues to provide extraordinary forward guidance on the path for the overnight rate, reinforced and supplemented by the Bank’s quantitative easing (QE) program. Effective the week of April 26, weekly net purchases of Government of Canada bonds will be adjusted to a target of $3 billion. This adjustment to the amount of incremental stimulus being added each week reflects the progress made in the economic recovery.


The outlook has improved for both the global and Canadian economies. Activity has proven more resilient than expected in the face of the COVID-19 pandemic, and the rollout of vaccines is progressing. A number of regions, including Canada, are experiencing a difficult third wave of infections and lockdowns. The more contagious variants of the virus are straining healthcare systems and affecting hard-to-distance activities, and have introduced a new dimension of uncertainty. The recovery remains highly dependent on the evolution of the pandemic and the pace of vaccinations.


Global economic growth is stronger than was forecast in the January Monetary Policy Report (MPR), although the pace varies considerably across countries. After a contraction of 2 ½ percent in 2020, the Bank now projects global GDP to grow by just over 6 ¾ percent in 2021, about 4 percent in 2022, and almost 3 ½ percent in 2023. The recovery in the United States has been particularly strong, owing to fiscal stimulus and rapid vaccine rollouts. The global recovery has lifted commodity prices, including oil, contributing to the strength of the Canadian dollar.


In Canada, growth in the first quarter appears considerably stronger than the Bank’s January forecast, as households and companies adapted to the second wave and associated restrictions. Substantial job gains in February and March boosted employment. However, new lockdowns will pose another setback and the labour market remains difficult for many Canadians, especially low-wage workers, young people and women. As vaccines roll out and the economy reopens, consumption is expected to rebound strongly in the second half of this year and remain robust over the projection. Housing construction and resales are at historic highs, driven by the desire for more living space, low mortgage rates, and limited supply. The Bank will continue to monitor the potential risks associated with the rapid rise in house prices. Meanwhile, strong growth in foreign demand and higher commodity prices are expected to drive a robust recovery in exports and business investment. Additional federal and provincial fiscal stimulus will contribute importantly to growth. The Bank now forecasts real GDP growth of 6 ½ percent in 2021, moderating to around 3 ¾ percent in 2022 and 3 ¼ percent in 2023.


The Bank has revised up its estimate of potential output in light of greater resilience to the pandemic and accelerated digitalization. The virus and lockdowns have had very different impacts across sectors, businesses, and groups of workers, creating an unusual degree of uncertainty about the amount of slack in the economy and how long it will take to be absorbed. To gauge the evolution of slack, the Bank will look at a broad spectrum of indicators, including various measures of labour market conditions.


Over the next few months, inflation is expected to rise temporarily to around the top of the 1-3 percent inflation-control range. This is largely the result of base-year effects—year-over-year CPI inflation is higher because prices of some goods and services fell sharply at the start of the pandemic. In addition, the increase in oil prices since December has driven gasoline prices above their pre-pandemic levels. The Bank expects CPI inflation to ease back toward 2 percent over the second half of 2021 as these base-year effects diminish, and inflation is expected to ease further because of the ongoing drag from excess capacity. As slack is absorbed, inflation should return to 2 per cent on a sustained basis some time in the second half of 2022. 


Even as economic prospects improve, the Governing Council judges that there is still considerable excess capacity, and the recovery continues to require extraordinary monetary policy support. We remain committed to holding the policy interest rate at the effective lower bound until economic slack is absorbed so that the 2 percent inflation target is sustainably achieved. Based on the Bank’s latest projection, this is now expected to happen some time in the second half of 2022. The Bank is continuing its QE program to reinforce this commitment and keep interest rates low across the yield curve. Decisions regarding further adjustments to the pace of net purchases will be guided by Governing Council’s ongoing assessment of the strength and durability of the recovery. We will continue to provide the appropriate degree of monetary policy stimulus to support the recovery and achieve the inflation objective.


Information note:


The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is June 9, 2021. The next full update of the Bank’s outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, will be published in the MPR on July 14, 2021.


Monetary Policy Report April 2021.


ERIK SEPPER 
MORTGAGE AGENT

CONTACT ME

Buying a Second Property

By Erik Sepper • 15 May, 2024
If you’ve been thinking about buying a second property and you’re looking to put some of the pieces together, you’ve come to the right place! Whether you’re looking to buy a vacation property, start a rental portfolio, or help accommodate a family member, there are many reasons to buy a second property (while keeping your existing property), which might make sense for you! Now, while there are many great reasons to buy a second property, there is also a lot to know as you walk through the process. The key here is to have absolute clarity around your why. Ask yourself, why do you want to buy a second property? This isn’t a decision to be taken lightly or one that should be made too quickly. Buying a second property should be a strategic decision that allows you to accomplish your goals, and it should include an assessment of your overall financial health. So with clear goals in mind, the best place to start the process is to have a conversation with an independent mortgage professional. This will allow you to assess your financial situation, outline the costs, and put together a plan to make it happen. While purchasing a second property is similar to buying a primary residence, there are some key differences. Just because you’ve qualified in the past for your existing mortgage doesn’t mean you’ll qualify to purchase a second property. One key difference is the amount of downpayment you might be required to come up with. A property that is owner-occupied or occupied by a family member on a rent-free basis will require less of a downpayment than if the second property will be used to generate an income. So, depending on the property's intended use, you might have to come up with as much as 25%-35% down. This is where strategic planning comes in. Consider unlocking the equity in your existing home to finance the downpayment to purchase your second home. Here are a few ways you can go about doing that: Securing a new mortgage if you own your property clear title Refinancing your existing mortgage to access additional funds Securing a home equity line of credit (HELOC) Getting a second mortgage behind your existing first mortgage Securing a reverse mortgage The conversation about buying a second property should include assessing your overall financial health, leveraging your existing assets to lower your overall cost of borrowing, and figuring out the best way to accomplish your goals. And as it's impossible to outline every scenario in a simple blog post, if you’d like to discuss your goals and put a plan together to finance a second property, connect anytime. It would be a pleasure to work with you.

Reposition Your Debts Through Mortgage Financing

By Erik Sepper • 08 May, 2024
If you’re a homeowner looking to optimize your finances, consider taking advantage of your home’s equity to reposition any existing debts you may have. If you’ve accumulated consumer debt, the payments required to service these debts can make it difficult to manage your daily finances. A consolidation mortgage might be a great option for you! Simply put, debt repositioning or debt consolidation is when you combine your consumer debt with a mortgage secured to your home. To make this happen, you’ll borrow against your home’s equity. This can mean refinancing an existing mortgage, securing a home equity line of credit, or taking out a second mortgage. Each mortgage option has its advantages which are best outlined in discussion with an independent mortgage professional. Some of the types of debts that you can consolidate are: Credit Card Unsecured Line of Credit Car Loan Student Loans Personal or Payday Loans Most unsecured debt carries a high interest rate because the lender doesn't have any collateral to fall back on should you default on the loan. However, as a mortgage is secured to your home, the lender has collateral and can provide you with lower rates and more favourable terms. Debt consolidation makes sense because it allows you to take high-interest unsecured debts and reposition them into a single low payment. So, when considering the best mortgage for you, getting a low rate is important, but it’s not everything. Your goal should be to lower your overall cost of borrowing. A mortgage that allows for flexibility in prepayments helps with this. It’s not uncommon to find a mortgage at a great rate that allows you to increase your payments by 15% per payment, double your payments, or make a lump sum payment of up to 15% annually. As additional payments go directly to the principal repayment of the loan, once you’ve consolidated all your debts into a single payment, it’s smart to take advantage of your prepayment privileges by paying more than just your minimum required mortgage payment, as this will help you become debt-free sooner. While there is a lot to unpack here, if you’d like to discuss what using a mortgage to reposition your debts could look like for you, here’s a simple plan we can follow: First, we’ll assess your existing debt to income ratio. We’ll establish your home’s equity. We’ll consider all your mortgage options. Lastly, we’ll reposition your debts to help optimize your finances. If this sounds like the plan for you, the best place to start is to connect directly. It would be a pleasure to work with you.

How To Avoid An Accidental Home Purchase

By Erik Sepper • 01 May, 2024
Buying a property might actually be easier than you think. So, if you have NO desire AT ALL to qualify for a mortgage, here are some great steps you can take to ensure you don’t accidentally buy a property. Fair warning, this article might get a little cheeky. Quit your job. First things first, ditch that job. One of the best ways to make sure you won’t qualify for a mortgage is to be unemployed. Yep, most mortgage lenders aren’t in the practice of lending money to unemployed people! If you already have a preapproval in place and don’t want to go through with financing, no problems. Unexpectedly quit your job mid-application. Because, even if you’re making a lateral move or taking a better job, any change in employment status can negatively impact your approval. Spend All Your Savings. To get a mortgage, you’ll have to bring some money to the table. In Canada, the minimum downpayment required is 5% of the purchase price. Now, if the goal is not to get a mortgage, spending all your money and having absolutely nothing in your account is a surefire way to ensure you won’t qualify for a mortgage. So, if you’ve been looking for a reason to go out and buy a new vehicle, consider this your permission. Collect as Much Debt as Possible. After quitting your job and spending all your savings, you should definitely go out and incur as much debt as possible! The higher the payments, the better. You see, one of the main qualifiers on a mortgage is called your debt-service ratio. This takes into count the amount of money you make compared to the amount of money you owe. So the more debt you have, the less money you’ll have leftover to finance a home. Stop Making Your Debt Payments So let’s say you can’t shake your job, you still have a good amount of money in the bank, and you’ve run out of ways to spend money you don’t have. Don’t panic; you can still absolutely wreck your chances of qualifying for a mortgage! Just don’t pay any of your bills on time or stop making your payments altogether. Why would any lender want to lend you money when you have a track record of not paying back any of the money you’ve already borrowed? Provide Ugly Supporting Documentation. Now, if all else fails, the last chance you have to scuttle your chances of getting a mortgage is to provide the lender with really ugly documents. To support your mortgage application, lenders must complete their due diligence. Here are three ways to make sure the lender won’t be able to verify anything. Firstly, and probably the most straightforward, make sure your name doesn’t appear anywhere on any of your statements. This way, the lender can’t be sure the documents are actually yours or not. Secondly, when providing bank statements to prove downpayment funds, make sure there are multiple cash deposits over $1000 without explaining where the money came from. This will look like money laundering and will throw up all kinds of red flags. And lastly, consider blacking out all your “personal information.” Just use a black Sharpie and make your paperwork look like classified FBI documents. Follow-Through So there you have it, to avoid an accidental home purchase, you should quit your job, spend all your money, borrow as much money as possible, stop making your payments, and make sure the lender can’t prove anything! This will ensure no one will lend you money to buy a property! Now, on the off chance that you’d actually like to qualify for a mortgage, you’ve come to the right place. The suggestion would be to actually keep your job, save for a downpayment, limit the amount of debt you carry, make your payments on time, and provide clear documentation to support your mortgage application! If you'd like to make sure you're on the right track, connect anytime. It would be a pleasure to walk through the mortgage process with you.
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