Bank of Canada Rate Announcement Jul 30th, 2025

Erik Sepper • July 30, 2025

Bank of Canada holds policy rate at 2¾%.

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

July 30, 2025

The Bank of Canada today maintained its target for the overnight rate at 2.75%, with the Bank Rate at 3% and the deposit rate at 2.70%.

While some elements of US trade policy have started to become more concrete in recent weeks, trade negotiations are fluid, threats of new sectoral tariffs continue, and US trade actions remain unpredictable. Against this backdrop, the July Monetary Policy Report (MPR) does not present conventional base case projections for GDP growth and inflation in Canada and globally. Instead, it presents a current tariff scenario based on tariffs in place or agreed as of July 27, and two alternative scenarios—one with an escalation and another with a de-escalation of tariffs.

While US tariffs have created volatility in global trade, the global economy has been reasonably resilient. In the United States, the pace of growth moderated in the first half of 2025, but the labour market has remained solid. US CPI inflation ticked up in June with some evidence that tariffs are starting to be passed on to consumer prices. The euro area economy grew modestly in the first half of the year. In China, the decline in exports to the United States has been largely offset by an increase in exports to the rest of the world. Global oil prices are close to their levels in April despite some volatility. Global equity markets have risen, and corporate credit spreads have narrowed. Longer-term government bond yields have moved up. Canada’s exchange rate has appreciated against a broadly weaker US dollar.

The current tariff scenario has global growth slowing modestly to around 2½% by the end of 2025 before returning to around 3% over 2026 and 2027.

In Canada, US tariffs are disrupting trade but overall, the economy is showing some resilience so far. After robust growth in the first quarter of 2025 due to a pull-forward in exports to get ahead of tariffs, GDP likely declined by about 1.5% in the second quarter. This contraction is mostly due to a sharp reversal in exports following the pull-forward, as well as lower US demand for Canadian goods due to tariffs. Growth in business and household spending is being restrained by uncertainty. Labour market conditions have weakened in sectors affected by trade, but employment has held up in other parts of the economy. The unemployment rate has moved up gradually since the beginning of the year to 6.9% in June and wage growth has continued to ease. A number of economic indicators suggest excess supply in the economy has increased since January.

In the current tariff scenario, after contracting in the second quarter, GDP growth picks up to about 1% in the second half of this year as exports stabilize and household spending increases gradually. In this scenario, economic slack persists in 2026 and diminishes as growth picks up to close to 2% in 2027. In the de-escalation scenario, economic growth rebounds faster, while in the escalation scenario, the economy contracts through the rest of this year.

CPI inflation was 1.9% in June, up slightly from the previous month. Excluding taxes, inflation rose to 2.5% in June, up from around 2% in the second half of last year. This largely reflects an increase in non-energy goods prices. High shelter price inflation remains the main contributor to overall inflation, but it continues to ease. Based on a range of indicators, underlying inflation is assessed to be around 2½%.

In the current tariff scenario, total inflation stays close to 2% over the scenario horizon as the upward and downward pressures on inflation roughly offset. There are risks around this inflation scenario. As the alternative scenarios illustrate, lower tariffs would reduce the direct upward pressure on inflation and higher tariffs would increase it. In addition, many businesses are reporting costs related to sourcing new suppliers and developing new markets. These costs could add upward pressure to consumer prices.

With still high uncertainty, the Canadian economy showing some resilience, and ongoing pressures on underlying inflation, Governing Council decided to hold the policy interest rate unchanged. We will continue to assess the timing and strength of both the downward pressures on inflation from a weaker economy and the upward pressures on inflation from higher costs related to tariffs and the reconfiguration of trade. If a weakening economy puts further downward pressure on inflation and the upward price pressures from the trade disruptions are contained, there may be a need for a reduction in the policy interest rate.

Governing Council is proceeding carefully, with particular attention to the risks and uncertainties facing the Canadian economy. These include: the extent to which higher US tariffs reduce demand for Canadian exports; how much this spills over into business investment, employment and household spending; how much and how quickly cost increases from tariffs and trade disruptions are passed on to consumer prices; and how inflation expectations evolve.

We are focused on ensuring that Canadians continue to have confidence in price stability through this period of global upheaval. We will support economic growth while ensuring inflation remains well controlled.

Information note

The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is September 17, 2025.

Read the July 30th., 2025 Monetary Report

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ERIK SEPPER
MORTGAGE AGENT

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How Your Loans and Spending Habits Are Quietly Shaping Your Credit Score

By Erik Sepper • April 10, 2026

Your credit score is one of the most important numbers in your financial life — especially when it comes to getting a mortgage. But for most Canadians, how that number actually gets calculated remains a bit of a mystery.

Going Through a Divorce? Don’t Let Your Credit Take the Hit

By Erik Sepper • April 8, 2026

Going Through a Divorce? Don’t Let Your Credit Take the Hit Divorce is stressful enough without adding financial fallout to the mix. Between lawyers, paperwork, and emotional strain, it’s easy to overlook how a separation can impact your credit. But your financial future depends on protecting it now—because long after the dust settles, a damaged credit score can linger. Here are a few smart steps to help keep your credit strong and your finances steady as you move forward. 1. Take Control of Joint Debts When it comes to joint debt, both parties are equally responsible—no matter what your divorce agreement says. If your ex misses a payment on an account with your name attached, your credit takes the hit too. Go through all joint credit cards, loans, and lines of credit. Wherever possible: Close joint accounts to stop future shared use. Transfer balances to the person responsible for repayment. Notify lenders in writing of any changes to account ownership. Once everything is updated, pull your credit report after three to six months to confirm all joint accounts have been closed and reporting correctly. Mistakes happen—stay proactive to prevent surprises later. 2. Open Your Own Bank Accounts Separation means financial independence, and that starts with your own banking. Open a new chequing account in your name only and redirect your pay deposits and bill payments there. At the same time, close any joint bank accounts and change passwords on existing online banking and credit profiles. Even in peaceful separations, shared access can cause confusion—or conflict. Protect yourself by ensuring your money and information are secure. 3. Start Building Credit in Your Name If most of your past credit was tied to your spouse’s name, now’s the time to establish your own. Apply for a small personal credit card or secured credit product . Use it sparingly and pay it off in full each month. This helps you build a solid individual credit history, setting the stage for future goals like buying a home, refinancing, or starting fresh financially. 4. Keep an Eye on Your Credit Monitor your credit report regularly for errors or unexpected changes. You can request free reports from both major credit bureaus in Canada— Equifax and TransUnion —once a year. Tracking your credit isn’t just about catching mistakes; it helps you see your progress as you rebuild your financial independence. Final Thoughts Divorce can be emotionally draining, but protecting your credit doesn’t have to be complicated. By taking a few careful steps now—closing joint accounts, building credit in your name, and monitoring your reports—you’ll safeguard your financial health and gain peace of mind as you start your next chapter. If you’d like personalized guidance on managing credit during or after a divorce, reach out anytime. I’d be happy to walk you through your options.

What Online Mortgage Calculators Can—and Can’t—Tell You

By Erik Sepper • April 1, 2026

What Online Mortgage Calculators Can—and Can’t—Tell You Online mortgage calculators are everywhere—and on the surface, they seem like a no-brainer. You plug in some numbers, and out pops what you can “afford.” Simple, right? Not quite. While the math itself is correct, the story behind those numbers is often misleading. Mortgage qualification isn’t just about numbers—it’s about context, risk, and lender policy. And that’s where calculators fall short. The Numbers Are Accurate—but the Picture Isn’t An online calculator can show you what a payment might look like at a given interest rate, or how making extra payments could reduce your amortization. That’s useful information! But when it comes to mortgage qualification , calculators don’t account for the many variables that lenders consider, such as: Your credit history and score Employment type (salary, self-employed, contract) Outstanding debts and monthly obligations Assets, savings, and down payment source The property type and location you’re buying Lenders evaluate all these factors through their internal risk models. That means two people entering the exact same numbers into a calculator could receive very different results when they actually apply for a mortgage. Why Online Calculators Can Mislead You When you see a “How much can I afford?” or “Mortgage Qualification” calculator online, it’s easy to treat the result as fact. But these tools don’t know your financial story—they only crunch the data you enter. A calculator can’t predict how a lender views your risk, how new mortgage rules apply to your file, or how things like spousal support, car loans, or variable income will impact approval. In short: calculators estimate payments, not qualification . Use Calculators the Right Way Don’t get us wrong—online calculators still have value. Use them to explore different “what-if” scenarios: How do payments change with different down payment amounts? How would a rate increase affect affordability? What if you added $100 a month to your payments? These tools are great for helping you understand your comfort zone. Just remember: they’re a starting point, not a green light. The Real First Step: Get a Pre-Approval If you’re serious about buying a home, skip the guesswork and get a mortgage pre-approval . It’s quick, free, and gives you real-world clarity on what you can afford. A pre-approval looks at your full financial picture—income, credit, debts, assets—and provides a framework for your purchase price, payment range, and rate options. It’s the only way to get a reliable answer to the question, “What can I really afford?” Final Thoughts Online calculators are convenient, but they can’t replace expert advice. Think of them as a starting point, not a solution. A professional mortgage broker can interpret the numbers, navigate lender policies, and tailor your financing strategy to your actual situation. If you’d like help understanding your true buying power—or want to get pre-approved with confidence— reach out anytime . I’d be happy to walk you through your options and help you make sense of the numbers.