Bank of Canada Rate Announcement Oct 25th, 2023

Erik Sepper • October 25, 2023

Bank of Canada maintains policy rate, continues quantitative tightening.


FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

Media Relations

Ottawa, Ontario

October 25, 2023


The Bank of Canada today held its target for the overnight rate at 5%, with the Bank Rate at 5¼% and the deposit rate at 5%. The Bank is continuing its policy of quantitative tightening.


The global economy is slowing and growth is forecast to moderate further as past increases in policy rates and the recent surge in global bond yields weigh on demand. The Bank projects global GDP growth of 2.9% this year, 2.3% in 2024 and 2.6% in 2025. While this global growth outlook is little changed from the July Monetary Policy Report (MPR), the composition has shifted, with the US economy proving stronger and economic activity in China weaker than expected. Growth in the euro area has slowed further. Inflation has been easing in most economies, as supply bottlenecks resolve and weaker demand relieves price pressures. However, with underlying inflation persisting, central banks continue to be vigilant. Oil prices are higher than was assumed in July, and the war in Israel and Gaza is a new source of geopolitical uncertainty.


In Canada, there is growing evidence that past interest rate increases are dampening economic activity and relieving price pressures. Consumption has been subdued, with softer demand for housing, durable goods and many services. Weaker demand and higher borrowing costs are weighing on business investment. The surge in Canada’s population is easing labour market pressures in some sectors while adding to housing demand and consumption. In the labour market, recent job gains have been below labour force growth and job vacancies have continued to ease. However, the labour market remains on the tight side and wage pressures persist. Overall, a range of indicators suggest that supply and demand in the economy are now approaching balance.


After averaging 1% over the past year, economic growth is expected to continue to be weak for the next year before increasing in late 2024 and through 2025. The near-term weakness in growth reflects both the broadening impact of past increases in interest rates and slower foreign demand. The subsequent pickup is driven by household spending as well as stronger exports and business investment in response to improving foreign demand. Spending by governments contributes materially to growth over the forecast horizon. Overall, the Bank expects the Canadian economy to grow by 1.2% this year, 0.9% in 2024 and 2.5% in 2025.


CPI inflation has been volatile in recent months—2.8% in June, 4.0% in August, and 3.8% in September. Higher interest rates are moderating inflation in many goods that people buy on credit, and this is spreading to services. Food inflation is easing from very high rates. However, in addition to elevated mortgage interest costs, inflation in rent and other housing costs remains high. Near-term inflation expectations and corporate pricing behaviour are normalizing only gradually, and wages are still growing around 4% to 5%. The Bank’s preferred measures of core inflation show little downward momentum.


In the Bank’s October projection, CPI inflation is expected to average about 3½% through the middle of next year before gradually easing to 2% in 2025. Inflation returns to target about the same time as in the July projection, but the near-term path is higher because of energy prices and ongoing persistence in core inflation.


With clearer signs that monetary policy is moderating spending and relieving price pressures, Governing Council decided to hold the policy rate at 5% and to continue to normalize the Bank’s balance sheet. However, Governing Council is concerned that progress towards price stability is slow and inflationary risks have increased, and is prepared to raise the policy rate further if needed. Governing Council wants to see downward momentum in core inflation, and continues to be focused on the balance between demand and supply in the economy, inflation expectations, wage growth and corporate pricing behaviour. The Bank remains resolute in its commitment to restoring price stability for Canadians.


Information note

The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is December 6, 2023. The Bank will publish its next full outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, in the MPR on January 24, 2024.


Read the October 25th, 2023 Monetary Policy Report.


ERIK SEPPER 
MORTGAGE AGENT

CONTACT ME
By Erik Sepper August 28, 2025
As patios wind down and pumpkin spice ramps up, fall is the perfect reset for your home—and your homeowner game plan. These quick wins boost comfort, curb appeal, and efficiency now, and set you up for a low-stress winter (and a strong spring market). 1) Safety & “silent leak” checks (Weekend-ready) Clean gutters & downspouts. Add leaf guards where trees overhang. Roof scan. Look for lifted shingles, cracked flashings, or moss. Seal the shell. Re-caulk window/door trim; replace weatherstripping. Test alarms. New batteries for smoke/CO detectors; add one near bedrooms. Why it matters: Prevent water intrusion and heat loss before storms roll in. 2) Heat smarter, not harder Furnace/boiler tune-up and filter change. Smart thermostat with schedules and geofencing. Draft hunt. Foam gaskets behind outlets, door sweeps on exterior doors. ROI tip: Efficiency upgrades lower monthly bills and can improve lender ratios if you’re eyeing a refinance later. 3) Fall-proof your yard (so spring you says “thanks”) Aerate + overseed + fall fertilize for thicker turf next year. Trim trees/shrubs away from siding and power lines. Mulch perennials and plant spring bulbs now. Shut off/bleed exterior taps and store hoses to avoid burst pipes. 4) Extend outdoor season (cozy edition) Portable fire pit or propane heater + layered blankets. Path/step lighting for darker evenings (solar or low-voltage). Weather-resistant storage for cushions/tools to preserve value. Neighborhood curb appeal: Warm lighting and tidy beds make a big first impression if you list in shoulder season. 5) Water management = winter peace of mind Re-grade low spots and add downspout extensions (2–3+ metres). Check sump pump (and backup). Look for efflorescence or damp corners in the basement. 6) Mini-renos that punch above their weight Entry/mudroom upgrade: hooks, bench, boot trays, closed storage. Laundry room tune-up: counter over machines, sorting bins, task lighting. Kitchen refresh: new hardware, tap, and under-cabinet lighting in one afternoon. Budget guide: Many of these land under a micro-reno budget—perfect for a modest line of credit. 7) Indoor air quality tune-up Deep clean vents and dryers (including the rigid duct). Add door mats (exterior + interior) to catch grit/salt. Houseplants or HEPA purifier for closed-window months. Fast Timeline (pin this to the fridge) Late August–September Gutters/downspouts, roof/caulking, HVAC service, lawn care, plant bulbs, exterior tap shut-off plan, path lighting. October Weatherstripping/sweeps, fire pit setup, organize mudroom/garage, test alarms, sump check, downspout extensions, dryer vent cleaning. Financing smarter: make your mortgage work for your home Annual mortgage check-in. As rates, income, and goals evolve, a quick review can free up cash flow or open options for a small fall project budget. HELOC vs. top-up refinance. For bite-size projects, a HELOC can be flexible. For bigger renos you plan to pay down, a top-up refi might make more sense. Bundle & prioritize. Knock out the high-impact, low-cost items first (air sealing, safety, water management) before the cosmetic upgrades. Not sure which route fits your fall plans? We’ll run the numbers and map the best financing path for your specific budget and goals. Quick Checklist (copy/paste) ☐ Clean gutters/downspouts; add guards ☐ Roof & flashing visual check ☐ Re-caulk, weatherstrip, add door sweeps ☐ HVAC service + new filter ☐ Aerate/overseed/fertilize; trim trees; plant bulbs ☐ Path & entry lighting ☐ Drain/bleed outdoor taps; store hoses ☐ Downspout extensions; sump test ☐ Dryer vent cleaning ☐ Mudroom/garage organization ☐ Schedule mortgage review / discuss HELOC vs refi Ready to make fall your low-stress season? Book a quick fall mortgage check-up—15 minutes to see if a small credit line or a tweak to your current mortgage could cover your priority projects without straining cash flow.
By Erik Sepper August 27, 2025
Thinking About Buying a Home? Here’s What to Know Before You Start Whether you're buying your very first home or preparing for your next move, the process can feel overwhelming—especially with so many unknowns. But it doesn’t have to be. With the right guidance and preparation, you can approach your home purchase with clarity and confidence. This article will walk you through a high-level overview of what lenders look for and what you’ll need to consider in the early stages of buying a home. Once you’re ready to move forward with a pre-approval, we’ll dive into the details together. 1. Are You Credit-Ready? One of the first things a lender will evaluate is your credit history. Your credit profile helps determine your risk level—and whether you're likely to repay your mortgage as agreed. To be considered “established,” you’ll need: At least two active credit accounts (like credit cards, loans, or lines of credit) Each with a minimum limit of $2,500 Reporting for at least two years Just as important: your repayment history. Make all your payments on time, every time. A missed payment won’t usually impact your credit unless you’re 30 days or more past due—but even one slip can lower your score. 2. Is Your Income Reliable? Lenders are trusting you with hundreds of thousands of dollars, so they want to be confident that your income is stable enough to support regular mortgage payments. Salaried employees in permanent positions generally have the easiest time qualifying. If you’re self-employed, or your income includes commission, overtime, or bonuses, expect to provide at least two years’ worth of income documentation. The more predictable your income, the easier it is to qualify. 3. What’s Your Down Payment Plan? Every mortgage requires some amount of money upfront. In Canada, the minimum down payment is: 5% on the first $500,000 of the purchase price 10% on the portion above $500,000 20% for homes over $1 million You’ll also need to show proof of at least 1.5% of the purchase price for closing costs (think legal fees, appraisals, and taxes). The best source of a down payment is your own savings, supported by a 90-day history in your bank account. But gifted funds from immediate family and proceeds from a property sale are also acceptable. 4. How Much Can You Actually Afford? There’s a big difference between what you feel you can afford and what you can prove you can afford. Lenders base your approval on verifiable documentation—not assumptions. Your approval amount depends on a variety of factors, including: Income and employment history Existing debts Credit score Down payment amount Property taxes and heating costs for the home All of these factors are used to calculate your debt service ratios—a key indicator of whether your mortgage is affordable. Start Early, Plan Smart Even if you’re months (or more) away from buying, the best time to start planning is now. When you work with an independent mortgage professional, you get access to expert advice at no cost to you. We can: Review your credit profile Help you understand how lenders view your income Guide your down payment planning Determine how much you can qualify to borrow Build a roadmap if your finances need some fine-tuning If you're ready to start mapping out your home buying plan or want to know where you stand today, let’s talk. It would be a pleasure to help you get mortgage-ready.
By Erik Sepper August 20, 2025
Can You Afford That Mortgage? Let’s Talk About Debt Service Ratios One of the biggest factors lenders look at when deciding whether you qualify for a mortgage is something called your debt service ratios. It’s a financial check-up to make sure you can handle the payments—not just for your new home, but for everything else you owe as well. If you’d rather skip the math and have someone walk through this with you, that’s what I’m here for. But if you like to understand how things work behind the scenes, keep reading. We’re going to break down what these ratios are, how to calculate them, and why they matter when it comes to getting approved. What Are Debt Service Ratios? Debt service ratios measure your ability to manage your financial obligations based on your income. There are two key ratios lenders care about: Gross Debt Service (GDS) This looks at the percentage of your income that would go toward housing expenses only. 2. Total Debt Service (TDS) This includes your housing costs plus all other debt payments—car loans, credit cards, student loans, support payments, etc. How to Calculate GDS and TDS Let’s break down the formulas. GDS Formula: (P + I + T + H + Condo Fees*) ÷ Gross Monthly Income Where: P = Principal I = Interest T = Property Taxes H = Heat Condo fees are usually calculated at 50% of the total amount TDS Formula: (GDS + Monthly Debt Payments) ÷ Gross Monthly Income These ratios tell lenders if your budget is already stretched too thin—or if you’ve got room to safely take on a mortgage. How High Is Too High? Most lenders follow maximum thresholds, especially for insured (high-ratio) mortgages. As of now, those limits are typically: GDS: Max 39% TDS: Max 44% Go above those numbers and your application could be declined, regardless of how confident you feel about your ability to manage the payments. Real-World Example Let’s say you’re earning $90,000 a year, or $7,500 a month. You find a home you love, and the monthly housing costs (mortgage payment, property tax, heat) total $1,700/month. GDS = $1,700 ÷ $7,500 = 22.7% You’re well under the 39% cap—so far, so good. Now factor in your other monthly obligations: Car loan: $300 Child support: $500 Credit card/line of credit payments: $700 Total other debt = $1,500/month Now add that to the $1,700 in housing costs: TDS = $3,200 ÷ $7,500 = 42.7% Uh oh. Even though your GDS looks great, your TDS is just over the 42% limit. That could put your mortgage approval at risk—even if you’re paying similar or higher rent now. What Can You Do? In cases like this, small adjustments can make a big difference: Consolidate or restructure your debts to lower monthly payments Reallocate part of your down payment to reduce high-interest debt Add a co-applicant to increase qualifying income Wait and build savings or credit strength before applying This is where working with an experienced mortgage professional pays off. We can look at your entire financial picture and help you make strategic moves to qualify confidently. Don’t Leave It to Chance Everyone’s situation is different, and debt service ratios aren’t something you want to guess at. The earlier you start the conversation, the more time you’ll have to improve your numbers and boost your chances of approval. If you're wondering how much home you can afford—or want help analyzing your own GDS and TDS—let’s connect. I’d be happy to walk through your numbers and help you build a solid mortgage strategy.