Bank of Canada Rate Announcement Sept 9th, 2020
Erik Sepper • September 9, 2020
Bank of Canada maintains commitment to current level of policy rate, continues program of quantitative easing.
The Bank of Canada today maintained its target for the overnight rate at the effective lower bound of ¼ percent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly ½ percent and the deposit rate is ¼ percent. The Bank is also continuing its quantitative easing (QE) program, with large-scale asset purchases of at least $5 billion per week of Government of Canada bonds.
Both the global and Canadian economies are evolving broadly in line with the scenario in the July Monetary Policy Report (MPR), with activity bouncing back as countries lift containment measures. The Bank continues to expect this strong reopening phase to be followed by a protracted and uneven recuperation phase, which will be heavily reliant on policy support. The pace of the recovery remains highly dependent on the path of the COVID-19 pandemic and the evolution of social distancing measures required to contain its spread.
The rebound in the United States has been stronger than expected, while economic performance among emerging markets has been more mixed. Global financial conditions have remained accommodative. Although prices for some commodities have firmed, oil prices remain weak.
In Canada, real GDP fell by 11.5 percent (39 percent annualized) in the second quarter, resulting in a decline of just over 13 percent in the first half of the year, largely in line with the Bank’s July MPR central scenario. All components of aggregate demand weakened, as expected.
As the economy reopens, the bounce-back in activity in the third quarter looks to be faster than anticipated in July. Economic activity has been supported by government programs to replace incomes and subsidize wages. Core funding markets are functioning well, and this has led to a decline in the use of the Bank’s short-term liquidity programs. Monetary policy is working to support household spending and business investment by making borrowing more affordable.
Household spending rebounded sharply over the summer, with stronger-than-expected goods consumption and housing activity largely reflecting pent-up demand. There has also been a large but uneven rebound in employment. Exports are recovering in response to strengthening foreign demand, but are still well below pre-pandemic levels. Business confidence and investment remain subdued. While recent data during the reopening phase is encouraging, the Bank continues to expect the recuperation phase to be slow and choppy as the economy copes with ongoing uncertainty and structural challenges.
CPI inflation is close to zero, with downward pressure from energy prices and travel services, and is expected to remain well below target in the near term. Measures of core inflation are between 1.3 percent and 1.9 percent, reflecting the large degree of economic slack, with the core measure most influenced by services prices showing the weakest growth.
As the economy moves from reopening to recuperation, it will continue to require extraordinary monetary policy support. The Governing Council will hold the policy interest rate at the effective lower bound until economic slack is absorbed so that the 2 percent inflation target is sustainably achieved. To reinforce this commitment and keep interest rates low across the yield curve, the Bank is continuing its large-scale asset purchase program at the current pace. This QE program will continue until the recovery is well underway and will be calibrated to provide the monetary policy stimulus needed to support the recovery and achieve the inflation objective.
Information note
The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is October 28, 2020. The next full update of the Bank’s outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, will be published in the MPR at the same time.
If you’re looking to do some home renovations but don’t have all the cash up front to pay for materials and contractors, here are a few ways to use mortgage financing to bring everything together. Existing Home Owners - Mortgage Refinance Probably the most straightforward solution, if you’re an existing homeowner, would be to access home equity through a mortgage refinance. Depending on the terms of your existing mortgage, a mid-term mortgage refinance might make good financial sense; there’s even a chance of lowering your overall cost of borrowing while adding the cost of the renovations to your mortgage. As your financial situation is unique, it never hurts to have the conversation, run the numbers, and look at your options. Let’s talk! If you're not in a huge rush, it might be worth waiting until your existing term is up for renewal. This is a great time to refinance as you won’t incur a penalty to break your existing mortgage. Now, regardless of when you refinance, mid-term or at renewal, you’re able to access up to 80% of the appraised value of your home, assuming you qualify for the increased mortgage amount. Home Equity Line of Credit Instead of talking with a bank about an unsecured line of credit, if you have significant home equity, a home equity line of credit (HELOC) could be a better option for you. An unsecured line of credit usually comes with a pretty high rate. In contrast, a HELOC uses your home as collateral, allowing the lender to give you considerably more favourable terms. There are several different ways to use a HELOC, so if you’d like to talk more about what this could look like for you, connect anytime! Buying a Property - Purchase Plus Improvements If you’re looking to purchase a property that could use some work, some lenders will allow you to add extra money to your mortgage to cover the cost of renovations. This is called a purchase plus improvements. The key thing to keep in mind is that the renovations must increase the value of the property. There is a process to follow and a lot of details to go over, but we can do this together. So if you’d like to discuss using your mortgage to cover the cost of renovating your home, please connect anytime!
If you're looking to buy a new property, refinance, or renew an existing mortgage, chances are, you're considering either a fixed or variable rate mortgage. Figuring out which one is the best is entirely up to you! So here's some information to help you along the way. Firstly, let's talk about the fixed-rate mortgage as this is most common and most heavily endorsed by the banks. With a fixed-rate mortgage, your interest rate is "fixed" for a certain term, anywhere from 6 months to 10 years, with the typical term being five years. If market rates fluctuate anytime after you sign on the dotted line, your mortgage rate won't change. You're a rock; your rate is set in stone. Typically a fixed-rate mortgage has a higher rate than a variable. Alternatively, a variable rate is not set in stone; instead, it fluctuates with the market. The variable rate is a component (either plus or minus) to the prime rate. So if the prime rate (set by the government and banks) is 2.45% and the current variable rate is Prime minus .45%, your effective rate would be 2%. If three months after you sign your mortgage documents, the prime rate goes up by .25%, your rate would then move to 2.25%. Typically, variable rates come with a five-year term, although some lenders allow you to go with a shorter term. At first glance, the fixed-rate mortgage seems to be the safe bet, while the variable-rate mortgage appears to be the wild card. However, this might not be the case. Here's the problem, what this doesn't account for is the fact that a fixed-rate mortgage and a variable-rate mortgage have two very different ways of calculating the penalty should you need to break your mortgage. If you decide to break your variable rate mortgage, regardless of how much you have left on your term, you will end up owing three months interest, which works out to roughly two to two and a half payments. Easy to calculate and not that bad. With a fixed-rate mortgage, you will pay the greater of either three months interest or what is called an interest rate differential (IRD) penalty. As every lender calculates their IRD penalty differently, and that calculation is based on market fluctuations, the contract rate at the time you signed your mortgage, the discount they provided you at that time, and the remaining time left on your term, there is no way to guess what that penalty will be. However, with that said, if you end up paying an IRD, it won't be pleasant. If you've ever heard horror stories of banks charging outrageous penalties to break a mortgage, this is an interest rate differential. It's not uncommon to see penalties of 10x the amount for a fixed-rate mortgage compared to a variable-rate mortgage or up to 4.5% of the outstanding mortgage balance. So here's a simple comparison. A fixed-rate mortgage has a higher initial payment than a variable-rate mortgage but remains stable throughout your term. The penalty for breaking a fixed-rate mortgage is unpredictable and can be upwards of 4.5% of the outstanding mortgage balance. A variable-rate mortgage has a lower initial payment than a fixed-rate mortgage but fluctuates with prime throughout your term. The penalty for breaking a variable-rate mortgage is predictable at 3 months interest which equals roughly two and a half payments. The goal of any mortgage should be to pay the least amount of money back to the lender. This is called lowering your overall cost of borrowing. While a fixed-rate mortgage provides you with a more stable payment, the variable rate does a better job of accommodating when "life happens." If you’ve got questions, connect anytime. It would be a pleasure to work through the options together.
With the latest stats claiming that about half of marriages end in divorce and with around three-quarters of Canadians being homeowners, it’s important to know how to handle your mortgage if you decide to separate. Here’s a quick list of things to consider. Keep making your payments. A mortgage is a legally binding contract between you and the lender. It doesn’t take marriage into account. If your name appears on the mortgage, you're responsible for making sure the regular payments are made. A marital breakdown does not give you an excuse not to make your mortgage payments. If, during your marriage, you've relied on your spouse to make the mortgage payments and you aren’t certain payments are being made after separating, it's in your best interest to contact the lender directly to verify your mortgage is being paid. If payments aren't being made, it could affect your credit score or worse; the lender could start foreclosure proceedings. There is always a financial cost to break your mortgage. When working through how to split your finances, you decided to either refinance your mortgage, remove someone from the title, or sell the property, keep in mind that you will incur legal costs. If you’re in the middle of a term, the penalty for breaking your mortgage might be significant, especially if you have a fixed-rate mortgage. It’s certainly worth contacting your mortgage lender directly to verify the cost of breaking your mortgage. Having that information accessible when writing out your separation agreement will provide increased clarity. Listing your marital status as separated or divorced. When completing a mortgage application for securing new mortgage financing, when you list your marital status as separated or divorced, you can expect that a lender will want to see your legal separation agreement or your divorce papers. The lender wants to make sure you aren’t responsible for support payments. So if you haven’t finalized the paperwork, expect delays in securing mortgage financing. It could be harder to qualify for a new mortgage. With the separation of assets also comes the separation of incomes. If you qualified for your existing mortgage on a double income, you might find it hard to maintain the same quality of lifestyle post-separation. This is where careful planning comes in. Working closely with your independent mortgage professional will ensure you understand exactly where you stand. You’ll want to put together a plan for how to handle the mortgage on the matrimonial home. Purchasing the matrimonial home from your ex. There are special considerations given to people going through a separation to buy out the matrimonial home. Instead of looking at the transaction like a refinance where you can only borrow up to 80% of the property’s value, lenders will consider one spouse buying out the other up to a 95% loan to value ratio. This comes in handy when dividing assets and liabilities. Navigating the ins and outs of mortgage financing isn’t something you have to do alone. If you're going through a separation and you’d like to discuss all your mortgage options, please connect anytime. It would be a pleasure to walk you through the process.